With the standard eight-deck shoe, Banker wins about 45.86% of hands, Player about 44.62%, and about 9.52% are ties. Because Banker wins more often, a winning Banker bet pays 0.95 to 1 (a 5% commission) instead of even money. Even after that commission, Banker is the cheapest bet on the table, with a house edge of about 1.06%, against about 1.24% for Player. The Tie bet, at the usual 8 to 1, carries an edge of about 14.4%.
Those figures are well established; what is less often explained is why they come out that way, and what they mean for your money at the table. This guide works through both, with the arithmetic shown so you can check it yourself.
The three outcomes and how often each happens
Every baccarat round ends in one of three ways. For an eight-deck shoe the long-run frequencies are:
| Outcome | Probability | Ignoring ties |
|---|---|---|
| Banker wins | 45.86% | 50.68% |
| Player wins | 44.62% | 49.32% |
| Tie | 9.52% | – |
On a tie, Banker and Player bets are returned (a push), so the right-hand column is what matters when you choose between the two main bets: Banker wins slightly more than half of the rounds that are decided.
Why Banker wins more often
Both hands follow fixed drawing rules; there are no decisions to make. The difference is the order. The Player hand acts first, by a simple rule: draw a third card on a total of 0 to 5, stand on 6 or 7. The Banker hand acts second, and its rule takes the Player's third card into account. For example, a Banker 3 draws unless the Player's third card was an 8; a Banker 6 draws only if the Player's third card was a 6 or 7.
Acting with more information is an advantage, even when a rulebook makes the choice. That small informational edge is where the gap between 45.86% and 44.62% comes from. It is not a streak, a pattern or a property of a particular shoe; it is built into the rules and applies to every hand.
The 5% commission: a worked example on $100
If Banker paid even money, a Banker bet would have a positive expectation for the player and no casino could offer it. The 5% commission turns that small player advantage back into a small house edge. Here is the arithmetic for a $100 Banker bet, per hand, over the long run:
- 45.86% of the time Banker wins and you receive $95 profit (the $100 win minus $5 commission): 0.4586 × $95 = +$43.57.
- 44.62% of the time Player wins and you lose $100: 0.4462 × $100 = −$44.62.
- 9.52% of the time it is a tie and your bet is returned: $0.
Adding them up gives about −$1.06 per $100 bet, a house edge of about 1.06%. With the commission at exactly zero, the same sum would be about +$1.24 for you. The break-even commission, where neither side has an edge, is roughly 2.7%; the 5% charged gives the house its margin.
Some tables pay Banker wins at 0.95 directly; others keep a running commission tally and settle it later. The effect on the odds is the same.
The Player bet: 1.24% and no commission
A Player bet pays even money, with no commission. The arithmetic for $100: 0.4462 × $100 = +$44.62, against 0.4586 × $100 = −$45.86 when Banker wins, with ties returned. The result is about −$1.24 per $100, a house edge of about 1.24%.
The difference between the two main bets is therefore about 0.18 percentage points. It is real, but small: on a $10 bet it is under two cents a hand. Betting Player because you prefer even-money payouts is a perfectly reasonable choice; it simply costs a fraction more over time.
The Tie bet: why the edge is so high
A tie comes up about 9.52% of the time, roughly once in every 10.5 hands. To be a fair bet, it would have to pay about 9.5 to 1. The usual payout is 8 to 1:
- At 8:1: 0.0952 × $800 − 0.9048 × $100 = about −$14.36 per $100, a house edge of about 14.36%.
- At 9:1, offered by some tables: about −$4.84 per $100, a house edge of about 4.84%.
Even at 9:1 the Tie is several times more expensive than Banker or Player. At 8:1 it costs more than thirteen times as much. That is why the table's Tie payout is the first thing worth checking in its info panel.
No-commission tables: what changes
A no-commission table pays Banker wins at even money, except (in the most common format) a Banker win with a total of 6, which pays 1 to 2. A Banker win on 6 happens in about 5.39% of hands. The arithmetic for $100:
- Banker wins on any total except 6 (about 40.47%): +$40.47.
- Banker wins on 6 (about 5.39%), paid half: +$2.69.
- Player wins (44.62%): −$44.62.
The total is about −$1.46 per $100. So on a no-commission table the Banker edge rises from about 1.06% to about 1.46%, while the Player bet stays at 1.24%. On these tables, Player is the cheaper of the two main bets, which surprises many experienced players. Other no-commission rule sets exist, and each has its own edge; our guide to Speed, Squeeze and No Commission tables compares the formats.
What the edge means over a session
A house edge is an average over a very large number of hands. In a single evening your result will swing well above and below it; that variance is what makes the game entertaining. Over time, though, the average is what you pay, so it is useful to translate the percentages into money.
Take a flat $20 bet and 70 hands in an hour, a relaxed pace at a live table:
- Always Banker (commission table): 70 × $20 × 1.06% ≈ $14.80 expected cost per hour.
- Always Player: 70 × $20 × 1.24% ≈ $17.40 per hour.
- Always Tie at 8:1: 70 × $20 × 14.36% ≈ $201 per hour.
Two lessons follow. The choice between Banker and Player matters far less than whether you make a habit of the Tie. And the number of hands matters as much as the stake: the same $20 at a faster table, with more hands an hour, costs proportionally more. If you want a longer evening on the same budget, a smaller stake or a slower table does more for you than any choice of side.
Side bets
Most live tables offer optional side bets, such as Player Pair and Banker Pair (the first two cards of a hand form a pair), and studio-specific bets on hand totals or winning margins. Side bets are where the house edge climbs: a pair bet paying 11 to 1 on an eight-deck shoe carries an edge of about 10.4%, and many margin-type bets are in a similar range. The exact payouts, and so the edge, vary by studio and table. If a side bet interests you, read its paytable and RTP in the table's info panel before you place it.
What no strategy can change
Baccarat is a game without decisions, so there is no strategy that changes the edge of a bet. In particular:
- Scoreboards and "roads" record the past; they do not predict the next hand. A run of Banker wins does not make Player "due".
- Betting systems change the size of your bets, not the edge on them. Doubling after a loss only raises the amount at risk until a table limit or your budget stops you.
- The cost of play is edge × stake × number of hands. The most effective way to control what you spend is the size of your bet and the time you play.
Choosing Banker on a commission table is the best a player can do on the main bets, and it still loses about a cent per dollar per hand on average. Treat baccarat as paid entertainment, set your limits before you sit down, and use our responsible gambling tools if it ever stops feeling that way. When you are ready to play, the live baccarat tables show each table's payouts in its info panel, and our FAQ covers accounts, deposits and withdrawals.
Frequently asked questions
Is Banker always the best bet in baccarat?
On a standard table with 5% commission, yes: Banker has a house edge of about 1.06% against about 1.24% for Player. On a no-commission table where a Banker win on 6 pays 1:2, Banker rises to about 1.46%, and Player becomes the cheaper main bet.
What are the odds of a tie in baccarat?
With eight decks, about 9.52% of hands are ties, roughly one in 10.5. At the usual 8:1 payout the Tie bet has a house edge of about 14.36%; at 9:1 it is about 4.84%.
Do I lose my Banker or Player bet on a tie?
No. On a tie, Banker and Player bets are returned. Only a Tie bet wins.
Why does the casino take 5% from Banker wins?
Because the Banker hand acts second and wins about 50.68% of the rounds that are not tied. Without a commission the Banker bet would favour the player; the 5% gives the house an edge of about 1.06%.